VIX

VIX

VIX

14.89

-5.46% today·-6.00% 24h·0.00% weekly

Playbook as of 5:19:12 AM

Desk

The lean

Red on the hourly chart
Hourlystill weakDailystill weakWeeklygreen soon↑ 15.63 unless 14.00

28%green

72%red

Near-term lean is red on the hourly chart. That is not “red by Friday.” Hourly chart still weak · Daily chart still weak · Weekly chart green soon.

Daily

Red soon

No textbook pattern locked

Unclear · Phase C upthrust — the last squeeze

Support
—
Resistance
—
Unless
15.78

Thesis holds unless it takes 15.78.

Hourly

Building cause

No textbook pattern locked

Unclear · Re-accumulation range

Support
—
Resistance
—
Unless
15.78

Thesis holds unless it takes 15.78.

Weekly prediction

Green soon

Count unclear

No textbook pattern locked

↑ 15.63

unless ↓ 14.00

Magnet 15.63 up unless it takes 14.00 underneath. Weeks, not Friday. Rebuilds when you open this page or hit Refresh.

Swing

No trade. The daily has not chosen a side.

Swing setup · spot / bags

Where to add, where to take profits

Built for swing and DCA — not for perps. The stop is the count kill. Leverage uses the ticket below.

Daily chart

Stand aside

No trade. The daily has not chosen a side.

Unclear with no named pattern. Forcing a side here is how accounts die.

Leverage

No leverage ticket.

Leverage · crypto perps / futures

40–60 pip stop, entry, take-profit, size

Not the swing ticket. Isolated only. You pick the leverage — we do not cap it.

1h · market entry

Stand aside

No leverage ticket.

Votes split across daily, 15m, and the live tape. No perp.

Project

The VIX is the S&P fear gauge, not a company

The VIX is the S&P fear gauge, not a company. Spikes mean-revert; a grind lower is complacency, not a dividend.

Drivers — S&P realized vol and positioning · Event risk / geopolitics · Dealer hedging into OPEX

Risks — Vol crush after a spike · A regime where 20 is the new floor

Levels

If it breaks

Support, resistance, and the next magnet

Resistance

—

If resistance breaks

—

No resistance printed on this daily.

Support

—

If support breaks

—

No support printed on this daily.

Path

Predictions for the next 90 days

Read from the daily and weekly charts

House / bear / bull path from this print — structure, not headlines.

Read from the daily and weekly charts — Unclear / No textbook pattern locked. The VIX is the S&P fear gauge, not a company. Spikes mean-revert; a grind lower is complacency, not a dividend.

30 days

14.00

14.00 — 15.35

Unclear on the daily. 30 days is the floor test — 14.00 or the next impulse. S&P realized vol and positioning.

60 days

13.44

13.44 — 15.81

If Unclear holds, 60 days walks toward 15.81. The VIX is the S&P fear gauge, not a company.

90 days

13.03

13.03 — 16.27

90 days prices the full count plus Event risk / geopolitics. Invalidation 13.44.

Charts

Daily, hourly, weekly

Weekly

Count unclear

Markdown in motion · No textbook pattern locked

See the diagram
Green soon

Unclear · markdown in motion · no textbook pattern. Green soon. Wait for a cleaner swing before forcing a count.

Weekly candles · support / resistance / invalidation · wave tags on swings

Elliott — where we are

  1. 1
  2. 2
  3. 3
  4. 4
  5. 5
  6. A
  7. B
  8. C

Wyckoff — Markdown · Phase trend

  1. Accum.
  2. Markup
  3. Distrib.
  4. Markdown

Power of 3 · low raid

  1. Accumulate
  2. Manipulate
  3. Expand

Levels

  1. Last14.89
  2. Fib 38.214.42
  3. Fib 5011.67
  4. Fib 61.88.9159

If resistance breaks

—

If the last swing holds, walk it toward the last swing. That is the only add.

If support breaks

—

If the last swing gives way, the next bid is the last swing. Do not invent a bounce until a higher-low prints and holds.

What to do

Looks like green is close — hold the floor and Wave 3 / markup can start.

No clean range — the tape is already expressing the last cause.

Elliott

Count unclear

The page is still being written.

Not enough confirmed swings, or the last pivots do not lock a textbook count. Honesty beats a forced label. Use support, resistance, and Wyckoff until the wave announces itself.

Do not invent a Wave 3. Trade the level in front of you.

Wyckoff

Markdown — the ice is broken

Lower highs. Bounces are gifts to sellers.

Once the ice (range low) gives way on volume, the cause built in the range expresses downward. This rhymes with Wave A/C. Do not average a falling knife. Wait for accumulation to start — a range after the decline, then a spring.

Bounces into the old floor are for exiting, not for heroics. The next bid is the next support, not your cost basis.

Power of 3

PO3 — the raid (Judas swing)

Stops just got tagged. The breakout looks real. It often is not.

Manipulation is the stop-run: sweep the lows (or highs) of the box, then fail back inside. Retail reads the sweep as a breakout. Size reads it as fuel. A low raid that reclaims is a long. A high raid that fails is a short.

The raid is the setup. Expansion is the other way. Chasing the raid is how you fund the real move.

Pattern

No textbook pattern locked

The last swings do not name themselves.

That is not a failure. Most of the tape is not a named pattern. Trade the levels, the wave, and the Wyckoff phase. A ghost H&S is how people fade a Wave 3.

No name, no measured move. Use support, resistance, and invalidation only.