SMCI

Super Micro

SMCI

36.81

-8.25% today·+0.63% 24h·0.00% weekly

Playbook as of 5:19:48 AM

Desk

The lean

Green on the daily chart
Hourlystill weakDailyalready greenWeeklygreen soon↑ 38.65 unless 35.72

87%green

13%red

Near-term lean is green on the daily chart. That is not “green all week.” Hourly chart still weak · Daily chart already green · Weekly chart green soon.

Daily

Markup

No textbook pattern locked

Unclear · Markup in motion

Support
—
Resistance
—
Unless
34.60

Thesis holds unless it loses 34.60.

Hourly

Building cause

No textbook pattern locked

Unclear · Building cause after a decline

Support
—
Resistance
—
Unless
39.02

Thesis holds unless it takes 39.02.

Weekly prediction

Green soon

Wave 2 · 40% retrace of Wave 1

Bull flag

↑ 38.65

unless ↓ 35.72

Magnet 38.65 up unless it takes 35.72 underneath. Weeks, not Friday. Rebuilds when you open this page or hit Refresh.

Swing

No clean long until a level prints.

Swing setup · spot / bags

Where to add, where to take profits

Built for swing and DCA — not for perps. The stop is the count kill. Leverage uses the ticket below.

Weekly chart

Stand aside

No clean long until a level prints.

Unclear leans long, but there is no measured number yet.

Leverage

Long market 36.81 → 37.70. Stop 36.40 (41 pips).

Leverage · crypto perps / futures

40–60 pip stop, entry, take-profit, size

Not the swing ticket. Isolated only. You pick the leverage — we do not cap it.

1h · market entry

Long 36.81

Your leverage

10x · liq 33.13. Stop is 1.11%. Isolated only.

Next funding in 2h 40m.

Stop
36.40
41 pips
Take profit
37.70
2.42%
R : R
2.2R
to first TP
Liq at 10x
33.13
24.39 / $1k · 89.78 margin

Long market 36.81 → 37.70. Stop 36.40 (41 pips).

Long this print. Count unclear · Markup in motion. Daily is Count unclear · Markup in motion. Isolated only. 1% risk per $1,000 is $10, about 24.39 units. Pick your own leverage.

Project

Super Micro builds the boxes NVIDIA sells into

Super Micro builds the boxes NVIDIA sells into. A high-beta AI hardware name with customer and accounting weather.

Drivers — AI server orders · NVIDIA cycle · Gross margin and working capital

Risks — Order air-pocket · Accounting / customer concentration

Levels

If it breaks

Support, resistance, and the next magnet

Resistance

—

If resistance breaks

—

No resistance printed on this daily.

Support

—

If support breaks

—

No support printed on this daily.

Path

Predictions for the next 90 days

Read from the daily and weekly charts

House / bear / bull path from this print — structure, not headlines.

Read from the daily and weekly charts — Unclear / No textbook pattern locked. Super Micro builds the boxes NVIDIA sells into. A high-beta AI hardware name with customer and accounting weather.

30 days

39.13

34.60 — 39.13

Unclear on the daily. 30 days is the floor test — 34.60 or the next impulse. AI server orders.

60 days

41.97

33.22 — 42.54

If Unclear holds, 60 days walks toward 42.54. Super Micro builds the boxes NVIDIA sells into.

90 days

44.56

33.22 — 44.66

90 days prices the full count plus NVIDIA cycle. Invalidation 33.22.

Charts

Daily, hourly, weekly

Weekly

Wave 2 · 40% retrace of Wave 1

Markup in motion · Bull flag

See the diagram
Green soon

Wave 2 · markup in motion · bull flag. Green soon. If this low holds, Wave 3 is the expansion — the cheat-code leg.

Weekly candles · support / resistance / invalidation · wave tags on swings

Elliott — where we are

  1. 1
  2. 2
  3. 3
  4. 4
  5. 5
  6. A
  7. B
  8. C

Wyckoff — Markup · Phase trend

  1. Accum.
  2. Markup
  3. Distrib.
  4. Markdown

Power of 3

  1. Accumulate
  2. Manipulate
  3. Expand

Levels

  1. Wave target69.22
  2. Next resistance42.31
  3. Fib 38.239.79
  4. Fib 5039.02
  5. Fib 61.838.24
  6. Last36.81
  7. Resistance36.80
  8. Support35.72
  9. Invalidation35.18
  10. Next support29.47

2.4% above support · 0.6% to resistance

If resistance breaks

42.31

A close through 36.80 opens 42.31. If 35.72 holds, walk it toward 69.22. That is the only add.

If support breaks

29.47

A close under 35.72 looks for 29.47. If 35.18 gives way, the next bid is 29.47. Do not invent a bounce until a higher-low prints and holds.

What to do

Looks like green is close — hold the floor and Wave 3 / markup can start. Count: Wave 2 · 40% retrace of Wave 1. Next support 35.7200, then 29.4700. Resistance 36.8000, then 42.3100. Count dies under 35.1842.

No clean range — the tape is already expressing the last cause.

Elliott

Wave 2 — the trap

The move is over. Everyone says so. It is not.

Wave 2 gives back most of Wave 1. Classically it dies in the 50–78% box and refuses to break the Wave 1 start. This is the springboard. It is also where most people get shaken out because the story sounds finished. A Wave 2 that holds is the cheapest inventory you will see before Wave 3.

If the Wave 2 low holds, Wave 3 is the expansion. The count dies if Wave 1's origin breaks. That is the only line that matters.

Wyckoff

Markup — the easy part

Higher lows. The old ceiling is now the floor.

The range has done its job. Jumping the creek (range high) on volume is the sign of strength. Pullbacks to the old ceiling become support. This is where Wave 3 and markup rhyme. Ride it until a higher-low fails.

Buy dips against the last higher-low. The first failed higher-low is the warning that distribution may be starting.

Power of 3

PO3 — expand the other way

The box is gone. The move is underway.

After the raid, price leaves the range in the opposite direction. That is the distribute/expansion leg. It often aligns with Wave 3 or Wyckoff Phase E. You are late to the raid and on time for the trend.

Ride the expansion. The old box edge is now your invalidation. Do not fade the first impulse out of a raid.

Pattern

Bull flag

A sharp pole, then a tight downward channel.

Flags are continuation. The pole is Wave 1 or 3. The flag is Wave 2 or 4. The cheat is the break of the flag high, measured as another pole.

Buy the flag high, stop under the flag low. Measured move = pole height added to the break.