RUT

Russell 2000

RUT

3,032.94

-1.07% today·+0.50% 24h·+0.00% weekly

Playbook as of 5:19:50 AM

Desk

The lean

Red on the daily chart
Hourlygreen soonDailystill weakWeeklydefending↑ 3,046.59 unless 2,850.97

40%green

60%red

Near-term lean is red on the daily chart. That is not “red by Friday.” Hourly chart green soon · Daily chart still weak · Weekly chart defending.

Daily

Red soon

Rising wedge (defending)

Wave 5 · High-range digestion

Support
2,903.67
Resistance
3,046.59
Unless
2,903.67

Thesis holds unless it loses 2,903.67.

Hourly

Green soon

Cup & handle (forming)

Wave 2 · Building cause after a decline

Support
3,017.54
Resistance
3,048.85
Unless
3,017.54

Thesis holds unless it loses 3,017.54.

Weekly prediction

Defend the level

Late impulse — possible Wave 5

No textbook pattern locked

↑ 3,046.59

unless ↓ 2,850.97

Magnet 3,046.59 up unless it takes 2,850.97 underneath. Weeks, not Friday. Rebuilds when you open this page or hit Refresh.

Swing

On the 1h, short until 2,903.67.

Swing setup · spot / bags

Where to add, where to take profits

Built for swing and DCA — not for perps. The stop is the count kill. Leverage uses the ticket below.

1h chart

Short until 2,903.67

Stop 3,046.59

On the 1h, short until 2,903.67.

Rising wedge (defending) on the daily. Supply is in control. Bounces are for reducing, not for heroics. Count: Late impulse — possible Wave 5. Next support 2903.67, then 2795.48. Resistance 3046.59, then 3069.71. Count dies under 2903.67.

Leverage

Short market 3,032.94 → 2,900.00. Stop 3,072.94 (40 pips).

Leverage · crypto perps / futures

40–60 pip stop, entry, take-profit, size

Not the swing ticket. Isolated only. You pick the leverage — we do not cap it.

15m · market entry

Short 3,032.94

Your leverage

10x · liq 3,336.24. Stop is 1.32%. Isolated only.

Next funding in 2h 40m.

Stop
3,072.94
40 pips
Take profit
2,900.00
4.38%
R : R
3.3R
to first TP
Liq at 10x
3,336.24
0.250 / $1k · 75.82 margin

Short market 3,032.94 → 2,900.00. Stop 3,072.94 (40 pips).

Short this print. Late impulse — possible Wave 5 · High-range digestion. Daily is Late impulse — possible Wave 5 · High-range digestion. Isolated only. 1% risk per $1,000 is $10, about 0.250 units. Pick your own leverage.

Project

The Russell 2000 is US small-cap risk

The Russell 2000 is US small-cap risk. Rates, credit, and domestic growth write this tape more than mega-cap AI.

Drivers — Real rates and the dollar · Credit spreads / regional banks · US growth and capex breadth

Risks — Higher-for-longer rates · Credit event in small-cap land

Levels

If it breaks

Support, resistance, and the next magnet

Resistance

3,046.59

If resistance breaks

3,069.71

If 3,046.59 breaks, the next magnet is 3,069.71.

Support

2,903.67

If support breaks

2,795.48

If 2,903.67 breaks, the next bid is 2,795.48.

Path

Predictions for the next 90 days

Read from the daily and weekly charts

House / bear / bull path from this print — structure, not headlines.

Read from the daily and weekly charts — Wave 5 / Rising wedge (defending). The Russell 2000 is US small-cap risk. Rates, credit, and domestic growth write this tape more than mega-cap AI.

30 days

2,980.45

2,903.67 — 3,064.38

Wave 5 on the daily. 30 days is the floor test — 2,903.67 or the next impulse. Real rates and the dollar.

60 days

2,927.95

2,903.67 — 3,069.71

If Wave 5 holds, 60 days walks toward 3,069.71. The Russell 2000 is US small-cap risk.

90 days

2,875.46

2,711.62 — 3,127.27

90 days prices the full rising wedge (defending) plus Credit spreads / regional banks. Invalidation 2,903.67.

Charts

Daily, hourly, weekly

Weekly

Late impulse — possible Wave 5

High-range digestion · No textbook pattern locked

See the diagram
Defend the level

Wave 5 · high-range digestion · no textbook pattern. Defend the level. A break of the last higher-low starts the A-wave. Take profits into strength, not into hope.

Weekly candles · support / resistance / invalidation · wave tags on swings

Elliott — where we are

  1. 1
  2. 2
  3. 3
  4. 4
  5. 5
  6. A
  7. B
  8. C

Wyckoff — Distrib. · Phase B

  1. Accum.
  2. Markup
  3. Distrib.
  4. Markdown

Power of 3 · high raid

  1. Accumulate
  2. Manipulate
  3. Expand

Levels

  1. Resistance3,069.71
  2. Last3,032.94
  3. Fib 38.22,937.21
  4. Fib 502,896.28
  5. Fib 61.82,855.35
  6. Support2,722.85
  7. Invalidation2,722.85
  8. Next support2,569.23

11.4% above support · 1.2% to resistance

If resistance breaks

—

A close through 3,069.71 opens the next offer. If 2,722.85 holds, walk it toward 3,069.71. That is the only add.

If support breaks

2,569.23

A close under 2,722.85 looks for 2,569.23. If 2,722.85 gives way, the next bid is 2,569.23. Do not invent a bounce until a higher-low prints and holds.

What to do

A level is doing the work. Defend it or step aside — do not invent a breakout. Count: Late impulse — possible Wave 5. Next support 2722.85, then 2569.23. Resistance 3069.71. Count dies under 2722.85.

Phase B — time. The cause is being built. Boring is the tell.

Elliott

Wave 5 — the last invitation

The story is loud. The tape is tired. Divergences show up.

Wave 5 completes the impulse. It can stretch, and it can fail. After 5 comes A-B-C — the give-back. Strength into a 5 is for selling, not for opening a religion. A break of the last higher-low starts the A-wave.

Take profits into Wave 5 strength. The first close under the Wave 4 low is the tell that the impulse is done.

Wyckoff

Distribution — cause to the downside

Rallies are sold. The story is still bullish. The tape is not.

After a markup, size builds a downside cause. Upthrusts (false breakouts) are the last squeeze. Phase D/E markdown is the default until demand proves it still wants this price. Rising wedges often live here.

An upthrust that fails is the bull trap. Bounces into the old floor of the range are exits.

Power of 3

PO3 — the raid (Judas swing)

Stops just got tagged. The breakout looks real. It often is not.

Manipulation is the stop-run: sweep the lows (or highs) of the box, then fail back inside. Retail reads the sweep as a breakout. Size reads it as fuel. A low raid that reclaims is a long. A high raid that fails is a short.

The raid is the setup. Expansion is the other way. Chasing the raid is how you fund the real move.

Pattern

No textbook pattern locked

The last swings do not name themselves.

That is not a failure. Most of the tape is not a named pattern. Trade the levels, the wave, and the Wyckoff phase. A ghost H&S is how people fade a Wave 3.

No name, no measured move. Use support, resistance, and invalidation only.