Daily
MarkupNo textbook pattern locked
Wave 3 · High-range digestion
- Support
- 208.78
- Resistance
- 227.92
- Unless
- 208.78
Thesis holds unless it loses 208.78.
NVIDIA
NVDA
218.82
-2.80% today·+0.58% 24h·0.00% weekly
Playbook as of 5:19:21 AM
Desk
The lean
No edgeHourlystill weakDailyalready greenWeeklydefending↑ 227.92 unless 205.69
44%green
56%red
Timeframes disagree. Hourly chart still weak · Daily chart already green · Weekly chart defending. Not a calendar call.
Hourly
Red soonRising wedge (defending)
Wave C · Building cause after a decline
- Support
- 216.76
- Resistance
- 224.76
- Unless
- 224.76
Thesis holds unless it takes 224.76.
Weekly prediction
Defend the levelWave 1 / A — first push
No textbook pattern locked
↑ 227.92
unless ↓ 205.69
Magnet 227.92 up unless it takes 205.69 underneath. Weeks, not Friday. Rebuilds when you open this page or hit Refresh.
Swing
On the 4h, short until 208.78.
Swing setup · spot / bags
Where to add, where to take profits
Built for swing and DCA — not for perps. The stop is the count kill. Leverage uses the ticket below.
4h chart
Short until 208.78
Stop 227.92
On the 4h, short until 208.78.
Wave 3 on the daily. Trend is already paying. Buy dips against the last higher-low, do not fade it. Count: Wave 3 in progress. Next support 208.780, then 199.340. Resistance 227.920, then 232.280. Count dies under 190.010.
Leverage
Short market 218.82 → 209.00. Stop 223.00 (42 pips).
Leverage · crypto perps / futures
40–60 pip stop, entry, take-profit, size
Not the swing ticket. Isolated only. You pick the leverage — we do not cap it.
1h · market entry
Short 218.82
Your leverage
10x · liq 240.71. Stop is 1.91%. Isolated only.
Next funding in 2h 41m.
- Stop
- 223.00
- 42 pips
- Take profit
- 209.00
- 4.49%
- R : R
- 2.4R
- to first TP
- Liq at 10x
- 240.71
- 2.39 / $1k · 52.41 margin
Short market 218.82 → 209.00. Stop 223.00 (42 pips).
Short this print. Wave 3 in progress · High-range digestion. Daily is Wave 3 in progress · High-range digestion. Isolated only. 1% risk per $1,000 is $10, about 2.39 units. Pick your own leverage.
Project
NVIDIA is the pick-and-shovel of AI compute
NVIDIA is the pick-and-shovel of AI compute. Data-center GPUs and CUDA lock-in are the franchise.
Drivers — Data-center GPU demand and backlog · CUDA software lock-in · Networking / inference mix
Risks — Customer capex pause · Custom ASIC share loss
Levels
If it breaks
Support, resistance, and the next magnet
Resistance
227.92
If resistance breaks
232.28
If 227.92 breaks, the next magnet is 232.28.
Support
208.78
If support breaks
199.34
If 208.78 breaks, the next bid is 199.34.
Path
Predictions for the next 90 days
Read from the daily and weekly charts
House / bear / bull path from this print — structure, not headlines.
Read from the daily and weekly charts — Wave 3 / No textbook pattern locked. NVIDIA is the pick-and-shovel of AI compute. Data-center GPUs and CUDA lock-in are the franchise.
30 days
227.44
208.78 — 227.44
Wave 3 on the daily. 30 days is the floor test — 208.78 or the next impulse. Data-center GPU demand and backlog.
60 days
232.28
190.01 — 232.28
If Wave 3 holds, 60 days walks toward 232.28. NVIDIA is the pick-and-shovel of AI compute.
90 days
243.89
199.34 — 243.89
90 days prices the full count plus CUDA software lock-in. Invalidation 190.01.
Charts
Daily, hourly, weekly
Defend the level
Wave 1 · high-range digestion · no textbook pattern. Defend the level. Expect a Wave 2 pullback. The low of this first push is the line in the sand.
Weekly candles · support / resistance / invalidation · wave tags on swings
Elliott — where we are
- 1
- 2
- 3
- 4
- 5
- A
- B
- C
Wyckoff — Distrib. · Phase B
- Accum.
- Markup
- Distrib.
- Markdown
Power of 3
- Accumulate
- Manipulate
- Expand
Levels
- Wave target266.04
- Next resistance236.54
- Resistance227.92
- Last218.82
- Fib 38.2213.36
- Fib 50208.86
- Fib 61.8204.36
- Support189.80
- Invalidation189.80
- Next support171.03
14.6% above support · 4.5% to resistance
If resistance breaks
236.54
A close through 227.92 opens 236.54. If 189.80 holds, walk it toward 266.04. That is the only add.
If support breaks
171.03
A close under 189.80 looks for 171.03. If 189.80 gives way, the next bid is 171.03. Do not invent a bounce until a higher-low prints and holds.
What to do
A level is doing the work. Defend it or step aside — do not invent a breakout. Count: Wave 1 / A — first push. Next support 189.800, then 171.030. Resistance 227.920, then 236.540. Count dies under 189.800.
Phase B — time. The cause is being built. Boring is the tell.
Elliott
Wave 1 — disbelief
The room is empty. Volume is honest. Nobody believes it.
Wave 1 is the first push against the old trend. It looks like a bounce that will fail. The people who buy it feel early and stupid. That is the whole point. Map the start of this push — that low is the line in the sand for everything that follows.
If Wave 1's low holds, you are early. Expect a Wave 2 that feels like death. Do not sell the low of 2.
Wyckoff
Distribution — cause to the downside
Rallies are sold. The story is still bullish. The tape is not.
After a markup, size builds a downside cause. Upthrusts (false breakouts) are the last squeeze. Phase D/E markdown is the default until demand proves it still wants this price. Rising wedges often live here.
An upthrust that fails is the bull trap. Bounces into the old floor of the range are exits.
Power of 3
PO3 — accumulate in the box
Nothing is happening. Mark the high and the low.
Power of 3 starts with a range. This is the 'dead' tape. The first raid of either side is the setup, not the story. Tight ranges with shrinking energy are the coil.
Draw the box. Do not trade the middle. The raid of a side is the cheat-code entry if it reclaims.
Pattern
No textbook pattern locked
The last swings do not name themselves.
That is not a failure. Most of the tape is not a named pattern. Trade the levels, the wave, and the Wyckoff phase. A ghost H&S is how people fade a Wave 3.
No name, no measured move. Use support, resistance, and invalidation only.