XAU

Gold spot

XAU

4,486.60

-0.44% today·+1.91% 24h·+1.32% weekly

Playbook as of 5:19:56 AM

Desk

The lean

Green on the hourly chart
Hourlyalready greenDailyalready greenWeeklyalready green↑ 4,521.12 unless 4,217.40

92%green

8%red

Near-term lean is green on the hourly chart. That is not “green all week.” Hourly chart already green · Daily chart already green · Weekly chart already green.

Daily

Markup

Inverse head & shoulders

Wave 3 · High-range digestion

Support
4,450.99
Resistance
4,521.12
Unless
4,450.99

Thesis holds unless it loses 4,450.99.

Hourly

Markup

Ascending triangle

Wave 3 · High-range digestion

Support
4,318.14
Resistance
4,521.12
Unless
4,318.14

Thesis holds unless it loses 4,318.14.

Weekly prediction

Markup

Wave 3 in progress

No textbook pattern locked

↑ 4,521.12

unless ↓ 4,217.40

Magnet 4,521.12 up unless it takes 4,217.40 underneath. Weeks, not Friday. Rebuilds when you open this page or hit Refresh.

Swing

On the 1h, long until 4,521.12.

Swing setup · spot / bags

Where to add, where to take profits

Built for swing and DCA — not for perps. The stop is the count kill. Leverage uses the ticket below.

1h chart

Long until 4,521.12

Stop 4,450.99

On the 1h, long until 4,521.12.

Inverse head & shoulders on the daily. Trend is already paying. Buy dips against the last higher-low, do not fade it. Count: Wave 3 in progress. Next support 4450.99, then 4303.83. Resistance 4521.12, then 4529.01. Count dies under 3909.99.

Leverage

Long market 4,486.60 → 4,570.00. Stop 4,446.60 (40 pips).

Leverage · crypto perps / futures

40–60 pip stop, entry, take-profit, size

Not the swing ticket. Isolated only. You pick the leverage — we do not cap it.

15m · market entry

Long 4,486.60

Your leverage

10x · liq 4,037.94. Stop is 0.89%. Isolated only.

Next funding in 2h 40m.

Stop
4,446.60
40 pips
Take profit
4,570.00
1.86%
R : R
2.1R
to first TP
Liq at 10x
4,037.94
0.250 / $1k · 112.17 margin

Long market 4,486.60 → 4,570.00. Stop 4,446.60 (40 pips).

Long this print. Wave 3 in progress · High-range digestion. Daily is Wave 3 in progress · High-range digestion. Isolated only. 1% risk per $1,000 is $10, about 0.250 units. Pick your own leverage.

Project

Gold is the monetary metal — this print is XAUUSD spot, not the COMEX future

Gold is the monetary metal — this print is XAUUSD spot, not the COMEX future. Real rates, the dollar, and central-bank buying write the bid.

Drivers — Real yields and the dollar · Central-bank and ETF demand · Geopolitical / inflation bid

Risks — Real-rate shock · Strong-dollar unwind of the bid

Levels

If it breaks

Support, resistance, and the next magnet

Resistance

4,521.12

If resistance breaks

4,655.72

If 4,521.12 breaks, the next magnet is 4,655.72.

Support

4,450.99

If support breaks

4,316.40

If 4,450.99 breaks, the next bid is 4,316.40.

Path

Predictions for the next 90 days

Read from the daily and weekly charts

House / bear / bull path from this print — structure, not headlines.

Read from the daily and weekly charts — Wave 3 / Inverse head & shoulders. Gold is the monetary metal — this print is XAUUSD spot, not the COMEX future. Real rates, the dollar, and central-bank buying write the bid.

30 days

4,577.45

4,450.99 — 4,577.45

Wave 3 on the daily. 30 days is the floor test — 4,450.99 or the next impulse. Real yields and the dollar.

60 days

4,531.47

3,909.99 — 4,531.47

If Wave 3 holds, 60 days walks toward 4,531.47. Gold is the monetary metal — this print is XAUUSD spot, not the COMEX future.

90 days

4,725.98

4,303.83 — 4,725.98

90 days prices the full inverse head & shoulders plus Central-bank and ETF demand. Invalidation 3,909.99.

Charts

Daily, hourly, weekly

Weekly

Wave 3 in progress

High-range digestion · No textbook pattern locked

See the diagram
Markup

Wave 3 · high-range digestion · no textbook pattern. Markup. Wave 3 often extends 1.618 of Wave 1. Do not fade strength until a 4-wave pullback prints.

Weekly candles · support / resistance / invalidation · wave tags on swings

Elliott — where we are

  1. 1
  2. 2
  3. 3
  4. 4
  5. 5
  6. A
  7. B
  8. C

Wyckoff — Re-dist. · Phase B

  1. Accum.
  2. Markup
  3. Distrib.
  4. Markdown

Power of 3

  1. Accumulate
  2. Manipulate
  3. Expand

Levels

  1. Next resistance4,812.98
  2. Resistance4,521.12
  3. Last4,486.60
  4. Wave target4,460.49
  5. Fib 38.24,287.03
  6. Fib 504,214.72
  7. Fib 61.84,142.41
  8. Support4,044.73
  9. Next support3,975.88
  10. Invalidation3,908.32

10.9% above support · 0.8% to resistance

If resistance breaks

4,812.98

A close through 4,521.12 opens 4,812.98. If 4,044.73 holds, walk it toward 4,460.49. That is the only add.

If support breaks

3,975.88

A close under 4,044.73 looks for 3,975.88. If 3,908.32 gives way, the next bid is 3,975.88. Do not invent a bounce until a higher-low prints and holds.

What to do

Trend is already paying. Buy dips against the last higher-low, do not fade it. Count: Wave 3 in progress. Next support 4044.73, then 3975.88. Resistance 4521.12, then 4812.98. Count dies under 3908.32.

Phase B — time. The cause is being built. Boring is the tell.

Elliott

Wave 3 — the meat

It already ran. The crowd arrives late. Pullbacks are shallow.

Wave 3 is the impulsive middle. It often extends 1.618 of Wave 1. Volume expands. The only sin is fading it because it 'already ran.' You do not call the top of a 3. You wait for a 4-wave rest that does not overlap Wave 1 territory.

Do not fade Wave 3. Add on shallow holds. The invalidation is the Wave 2 low.

Wyckoff

Re-distribution — pause in a downtrend

A bounce that cannot become a trend.

Same schematic as distribution, after markdown. The bounce is inventory for the next leg down unless a spring and SOS prove otherwise.

Treat strength as a short until the range high is reclaimed and held. Hope is not a sign of strength.

Power of 3

PO3 — accumulate in the box

Nothing is happening. Mark the high and the low.

Power of 3 starts with a range. This is the 'dead' tape. The first raid of either side is the setup, not the story. Tight ranges with shrinking energy are the coil.

Draw the box. Do not trade the middle. The raid of a side is the cheat-code entry if it reclaims.

Pattern

No textbook pattern locked

The last swings do not name themselves.

That is not a failure. Most of the tape is not a named pattern. Trade the levels, the wave, and the Wyckoff phase. A ghost H&S is how people fade a Wave 3.

No name, no measured move. Use support, resistance, and invalidation only.