BTC

Bitcoin

BTC

69,532.43

+0.28% today·+8.17% 24h·+10.20% weekly

Playbook as of 5:19:12 AM

Desk

The lean

Green on the hourly chart
Hourlyalready greenDailydefendingWeeklyalready green↑ 70,064.20 unless 65,000.00

90%green

10%red

Near-term lean is green on the hourly chart. That is not “green all week.” Hourly chart already green · Daily chart defending · Weekly chart already green.

Daily

Defend the level

Inverse head & shoulders

Wave 5 · High-range digestion

Support
62,270.00
Resistance
70,064.20
Unless
65,360.48

Thesis holds unless it loses 65,360.48.

Hourly

Green soon

No textbook pattern locked

Wave 2 · High-range digestion

Support
68,916.60
Resistance
69,888.00
Unless
68,916.60

Thesis holds unless it loses 68,916.60.

Weekly prediction

Markup

Wave 3 in progress

No textbook pattern locked

↑ 70,064.20

unless ↓ 65,000.00

Magnet 70,064.20 up unless it takes 65,000.00 underneath. Weeks, not Friday. Rebuilds when you open this page or hit Refresh.

Swing

On the weekly, short until 62,270.00.

Swing setup · spot / bags

Where to add, where to take profits

Built for swing and DCA — not for perps. The stop is the count kill. Leverage uses the ticket below.

Weekly chart

Short until 62,270.00

Stop 70,064.20

On the weekly, short until 62,270.00.

Inverse head & shoulders on the daily. A level is doing the work. Defend it or step aside — do not invent a breakout. Count: Late impulse — possible Wave 5. Next support 62270.0, then 62268.5. Resistance 70064.2, then 78084.5. Count dies under 62268.5.

Leverage

Short market 69,532.43 → 68,600.00. Stop 70,022.44 (49 pips).

Leverage · crypto perps / futures

40–60 pip stop, entry, take-profit, size

Not the swing ticket. Isolated only. You pick the leverage — we do not cap it.

15m · market entry

Short 69,532.43

Your leverage

10x · liq 76,485.67. Stop is 0.70%. Isolated only.

Next funding in 2h 41m.

Stop
70,022.44
49 pips
Take profit
68,600.00
1.34%
R : R
1.9R
to first TP
Liq at 10x
76,485.67
0.0204 / $1k · 141.90 margin

Short market 69,532.43 → 68,600.00. Stop 70,022.44 (49 pips).

Short this print. high of day · extended into the high. Daily is Late impulse — possible Wave 5 · High-range digestion. Isolated only. 1% risk per $1,000 is $10, about 0.0204 units. Pick your own leverage.

Project

Bitcoin is the reserve asset of this market

Bitcoin is the reserve asset of this market. ETF and treasury demand set the bid; halvings set the supply. Everything else still prices in sats.

Drivers — Spot ETF and corporate/sovereign treasury flows · Fixed 21m supply after the 2024 halving · Dollar liquidity and real rates

Risks — ETF outflows on a risk-off tape · Miner sell after a failed breakout

Levels

If it breaks

Support, resistance, and the next magnet

Resistance

70,064.20

If resistance breaks

76,100.60

If 70,064.20 breaks, the next magnet is 76,100.60.

Support

62,270.00

If support breaks

54,475.80

If 62,270.00 breaks, the next bid is 54,475.80.

Path

Predictions for the next 90 days

Read from the daily and weekly charts

House / bear / bull path from this print — structure, not headlines.

Read from the daily and weekly charts — Wave 5 / Inverse head & shoulders. Bitcoin is the reserve asset of this market. ETF and treasury demand set the bid; halvings set the supply. Everything else still prices in sats.

30 days

71,182.18

62,270.00 — 73,039.82

Wave 5 on the daily. 30 days is the floor test — 62,270.00 or the next impulse. Spot ETF and corporate/sovereign treasury flows.

60 days

72,831.93

62,268.50 — 78,084.50

If Wave 5 holds, 60 days walks toward 78,084.50. Bitcoin is the reserve asset of this market.

90 days

74,481.69

62,268.50 — 78,084.50

90 days prices the full inverse head & shoulders plus Fixed 21m supply after the 2024 halving. Invalidation 62,268.50.

Charts

Daily, hourly, weekly

Weekly

Wave 3 in progress

Phase C upthrust — the last squeeze · No textbook pattern locked

See the diagram
Markup

Wave 3 · phase c upthrust — the last squeeze · no textbook pattern. Markup. Wave 3 often extends 1.618 of Wave 1. Do not fade strength until a 4-wave pullback prints.

Weekly candles · support / resistance / invalidation · wave tags on swings

Elliott — where we are

  1. 1
  2. 2
  3. 3
  4. 4
  5. 5
  6. A
  7. B
  8. C

Wyckoff — Distrib. · Phase C

  1. Accum.
  2. Markup
  3. Distrib.
  4. Markdown

Upthrust printed — the last squeeze. That is the lie before markdown.

Power of 3

  1. Accumulate
  2. Manipulate
  3. Expand

Levels

  1. Next resistance72,288.00
  2. Wave target71,058.88
  3. Resistance70,064.20
  4. Last69,532.43
  5. Fib 38.265,382.87
  6. Support65,000.00
  7. Fib 5063,936.80
  8. Next support62,500.20
  9. Fib 61.862,490.73
  10. Invalidation57,809.40

7.1% above support · 0.7% to resistance

If resistance breaks

72,288.00

A close through 70,064.20 opens 72,288.00. If 65,000.00 holds, walk it toward 71,058.88. That is the only add.

If support breaks

62,500.20

A close under 65,000.00 looks for 62,500.20. If 57,809.40 gives way, the next bid is 62,500.20. Do not invent a bounce until a higher-low prints and holds.

What to do

Trend is already paying. Buy dips against the last higher-low, do not fade it. Count: Wave 3 in progress. Next support 65000.0, then 62500.2. Resistance 70064.2, then 72288.0. Count dies under 57809.4.

Phase C — the last lie. Spring or upthrust. This is the entry, not the breakout.

Elliott

Wave 3 — the meat

It already ran. The crowd arrives late. Pullbacks are shallow.

Wave 3 is the impulsive middle. It often extends 1.618 of Wave 1. Volume expands. The only sin is fading it because it 'already ran.' You do not call the top of a 3. You wait for a 4-wave rest that does not overlap Wave 1 territory.

Do not fade Wave 3. Add on shallow holds. The invalidation is the Wave 2 low.

Wyckoff

Distribution — cause to the downside

Rallies are sold. The story is still bullish. The tape is not.

After a markup, size builds a downside cause. Upthrusts (false breakouts) are the last squeeze. Phase D/E markdown is the default until demand proves it still wants this price. Rising wedges often live here.

An upthrust that fails is the bull trap. Bounces into the old floor of the range are exits.

Power of 3

PO3 — accumulate in the box

Nothing is happening. Mark the high and the low.

Power of 3 starts with a range. This is the 'dead' tape. The first raid of either side is the setup, not the story. Tight ranges with shrinking energy are the coil.

Draw the box. Do not trade the middle. The raid of a side is the cheat-code entry if it reclaims.

Pattern

No textbook pattern locked

The last swings do not name themselves.

That is not a failure. Most of the tape is not a named pattern. Trade the levels, the wave, and the Wyckoff phase. A ghost H&S is how people fade a Wave 3.

No name, no measured move. Use support, resistance, and invalidation only.