AVAX

Avalanche

AVAX

6.748

-0.46% today·+6.33% 24h·+5.02% weekly

Playbook as of 5:19:52 AM

Desk

The lean

Green on the hourly chart
Hourlyalready greenDailydefendingWeeklyalready green↑ 6.883 unless 6.3431

69%green

31%red

Near-term lean is green on the hourly chart. That is not “green all week.” Hourly chart already green · Daily chart defending · Weekly chart already green.

Daily

Defend the level

Double bottom forming

Wave 1 · High-range digestion

Support
6.225
Resistance
6.886
Unless
6.225

Thesis holds unless it loses 6.225.

Hourly

Green soon

Double bottom forming

Wave 2 · High-range digestion

Support
6.696
Resistance
6.883
Unless
6.696

Thesis holds unless it loses 6.696.

Weekly prediction

Red soon

Wave 1 / A — first push

No textbook pattern locked

↑ 6.883

unless ↓ 6.3431

Magnet 6.883 up unless it takes 6.3431 underneath. Weeks, not Friday. Rebuilds when you open this page or hit Refresh.

Swing

No trade. Wait for 6.886 to break.

Swing setup · spot / bags

Where to add, where to take profits

Built for swing and DCA — not for perps. The stop is the count kill. Leverage uses the ticket below.

Daily chart

Stand aside

No trade. Wait for 6.886 to break.

Wave 1 with no named pattern. Forcing a side here is how accounts die.

Leverage

Short market 6.748 → 6.660. Stop 6.790 (42 pips).

Leverage · crypto perps / futures

40–60 pip stop, entry, take-profit, size

Not the swing ticket. Isolated only. You pick the leverage — we do not cap it.

1h · market entry

Short 6.748

Your leverage

10x · liq 7.4228. Stop is 0.62%. Isolated only.

Next funding in 2h 40m.

Stop
6.790
42 pips
Take profit
6.660
1.30%
R : R
2.1R
to first TP
Liq at 10x
7.4228
238.10 / $1k · 160.67 margin

Short market 6.748 → 6.660. Stop 6.790 (42 pips).

Short this print. extended into the high. Daily is Wave 1 / A — first push · High-range digestion. Isolated only. 1% risk per $1,000 is $10, about 238.10 units. Pick your own leverage.

Project

Avalanche is an L1 + subnet shop

Avalanche is an L1 + subnet shop. Etna / Avalanche9000 cut the cost to launch a chain. It still needs one subnet the market actually uses.

Drivers — Subnet / L1 launches after the fee cut · RWA and gaming chains that settle to C-Chain · AVAX burned on activity, not just emissions

Risks — Subnets launch empty · Lost mindshare to SOL / newer L1s

Levels

If it breaks

Support, resistance, and the next magnet

Resistance

6.886

If resistance breaks

6.987

If 6.886 breaks, the next magnet is 6.987.

Support

6.225

If support breaks

6.106

If 6.225 breaks, the next bid is 6.106.

Path

Predictions for the next 90 days

Read from the daily and weekly charts

House / bear / bull path from this print — structure, not headlines.

Read from the daily and weekly charts — Wave 1 / Double bottom forming. Avalanche is an L1 + subnet shop. Etna / Avalanche9000 cut the cost to launch a chain. It still needs one subnet the market actually uses.

30 days

6.8239

6.225 — 6.8239

Wave 1 on the daily. 30 days is the floor test — 6.225 or the next impulse. Subnet / L1 launches after the fee cut.

60 days

7.0343

6.106 — 7.666

If Wave 1 holds, 60 days walks toward 7.666. Avalanche is an L1 + subnet shop.

90 days

7.1775

6.106 — 7.937

90 days prices the full double bottom forming plus RWA and gaming chains that settle to C-Chain. Invalidation 6.106.

Charts

Daily, hourly, weekly

Weekly

Wave 1 / A — first push

Phase C upthrust — the last squeeze · No textbook pattern locked

See the diagram
Red soon

Wave 1 · phase c upthrust — the last squeeze · no textbook pattern. Red soon. Expect a Wave 2 pullback. The low of this first push is the line in the sand.

Weekly candles · support / resistance / invalidation · wave tags on swings

Elliott — where we are

  1. 1
  2. 2
  3. 3
  4. 4
  5. 5
  6. A
  7. B
  8. C

Wyckoff — Re-dist. · Phase C

  1. Accum.
  2. Markup
  3. Distrib.
  4. Markdown

Upthrust printed — the last squeeze. That is the lie before markdown.

Power of 3

  1. Accumulate
  2. Manipulate
  3. Expand

Levels

  1. Wave target7.660
  2. Next resistance6.987
  3. Resistance6.883
  4. Last6.748
  5. Fib 38.26.5862
  6. Fib 506.4945
  7. Fib 61.86.4028
  8. Support6.106
  9. Invalidation6.106
  10. Next support6.037

10.6% above support · 1.8% to resistance

If resistance breaks

6.987

A close through 6.883 opens 6.987. If 6.106 holds, walk it toward 7.660. That is the only add.

If support breaks

6.037

A close under 6.106 looks for 6.037. If 6.106 gives way, the next bid is 6.037. Do not invent a bounce until a higher-low prints and holds.

What to do

Supply is in control. Bounces are for reducing, not for heroics. Count: Wave 1 / A — first push. Next support 6.10600, then 6.03700. Resistance 6.88300, then 6.98700. Count dies under 6.10600.

Phase C — the last lie. Spring or upthrust. This is the entry, not the breakout.

Elliott

Wave 1 — disbelief

The room is empty. Volume is honest. Nobody believes it.

Wave 1 is the first push against the old trend. It looks like a bounce that will fail. The people who buy it feel early and stupid. That is the whole point. Map the start of this push — that low is the line in the sand for everything that follows.

If Wave 1's low holds, you are early. Expect a Wave 2 that feels like death. Do not sell the low of 2.

Wyckoff

Re-distribution — pause in a downtrend

A bounce that cannot become a trend.

Same schematic as distribution, after markdown. The bounce is inventory for the next leg down unless a spring and SOS prove otherwise.

Treat strength as a short until the range high is reclaimed and held. Hope is not a sign of strength.

Power of 3

PO3 — accumulate in the box

Nothing is happening. Mark the high and the low.

Power of 3 starts with a range. This is the 'dead' tape. The first raid of either side is the setup, not the story. Tight ranges with shrinking energy are the coil.

Draw the box. Do not trade the middle. The raid of a side is the cheat-code entry if it reclaims.

Pattern

No textbook pattern locked

The last swings do not name themselves.

That is not a failure. Most of the tape is not a named pattern. Trade the levels, the wave, and the Wyckoff phase. A ghost H&S is how people fade a Wave 3.

No name, no measured move. Use support, resistance, and invalidation only.